Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 7 February 2019
- Oil price forecast cuts (ICYMI)
- JP Morgan increasing 'risk' on Federal Reserve's 'decisive dovish shift'
- Responses to the NZ jobs data miss - RBNZ, NZD
- A little more on Fed's Powell comment that the US economy is in 'a good place'
- Deutsche Bank expect the RBNZ to delay rate hike
- Fed chair Powell says the US economy is in a good place
- Australia - NAB Q4 business confidence: 1 (prior 3)
- Fed's Quarles, says he is most focused on direction of global growth
- AFR: "RBA goes neutral as the risks pile up" … "economy on a knife edge"
- Updated RBA forecasts from UBS, two rate cuts to come
- Australia January Construction PMI 43.1 (prior 42.6)
- Macquarie on their RBA outlook, and what was surprising from Lowe
- Brexit (ICYMI): UK govt says it won't have trade deals with most non-EU countries by March 29
- NZD drops on Q4 employment report miss
- UK press reports PM May planning delay (to end Feb) on 2nd Brexit deal vote
- New Zealand - Q4 Employment report: Unemployment 4.3% (expected 4.1)
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 7 February 2019
The New Zealand dollar was a big loser today. Official employment data is published from NZ only once a quarter, and today we got the Q4 2018 results. Q3 was a big positive and some 'give back' was built into expectations for Q4, but the result came in worse than the lowered expectations. Kiwi was marked down immediately, from around 0.6830 to under 0.6780 and the rot set in further from there.
NZD/USD is currently under 0.6750 and looking heavy still. Pricing for rate cuts from the RBNZ have firmed for 2019. Note, there is a central bank meeting next week but the Bank is not expected to move at this meeting.
AUD came under a little pressure as the kiwi fell and is near its session low as I post. The RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy is due Friday, Australia time (0030GMT).
USD/JPY stepped back from just under 110 in morning Japanese trade but has since inched back towards there and looks set for another go at the figure.
EUR, GBP, CHF have all been confined to quiet tight ranges. CAD lost further ground here during the session after the slide began during the US afternoon. (check out the US-time wrap for more, comments from BoC dep Gov Lane on a weaker currency)
Still to come:
