Forex news for Asia trading Friday 5 August 20
- Goldman Sachs says Brexit result could force it to restructure some UK operations
- No China rate cut this year says Capital Economics
- Japan METI Minister: Strong yen could prompt big firms to revise capex plans
- Australia - RBA forecasts for growth and CPI (summarised)
- RBA: Underlying inflation to remain under 2% for much of forecast period
- People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.6406 (vs. yesterday at 6.6444)
- Japan finance minister Aso: Govt to work closely with the BOJ
- Japan economy minister Ishihara: No comment on Forex
- Japan data - Labor Cash Earnings for June +1.3% y/y (expected +0.3%, prior -0.1%)
- Australia - Construction PMI for July: 51.6 (prior 53.2)
- UK business hiring of permanent staff hiring falls in July, at fastest pace since May 2009
- 5 forecasts for GBP/USD by year end (go on, have a guess which way)
- US nonfarm payroll - here are some bank forecasts
- Fitch on the UK - BoE easing a 'cushion', not an offset, to growth shock
- Oil - Greenspan says price probably bottomed at $40
- The TGIF trade ideas thread ahead of the NFP report
- Japan press: "BOJ's massive easing nears turning point"
- Goldman Sachs nonfarm payroll expectation +190K
Plenty of jawboning out of Japanese officials today but to little effect; USD/JPY did manage a small upmove to above 101.30 but not long after the Tokyo fix gave up and stumbled back toward 101.10. Wage data (for July) showed some improvement, but much of it price-deflation related (see bullets above).
AUD was a star performer, edging higher on a consistent basis throughout the session (with one dip, which we'll get to). It dragged the NZD along higher also but the AUD outperformed.
The focus for AUD traders was the SOMP (that's the Reserve Bank of Australia's Statement on Monetary Policy, which comes out once a quarter). Revised forecasts were very little changed; accompanying the numbers though the language in the document was quite subdued and hints at further, longer policy accommodation. Iron ore futures in China today (Dalian) gained ground. As I update AUD/USD is pretty much right on session highs - bring on the NFP for its next hurdle.
EUR, CHF and GBP all cofnined to relatively small ranges against the USD today and each up slightly. Gold is little changed while oil has given up a few cents.
Regional equities:
- Nikkei +0.18%
- Shanghai -0.10%
- HK +1.50%
- ASX +0.42%
Still to come: Overall it was relatively subdued in Asia today as the market awaits the key US payroll report - don't forget to enter the competition: Pick a number, win a prize in our Non-farm payrolls competition
- Due at 1230GMT
- The Bloomberg survey has consensus median expectations at +180K
- The prior month was +287K
The prize is an Attacking Currency Trends travel mug!
