Forex and Bitcoin news for Asia trading Monday 28 May 2018
Italy:
- More weekend Italy news: Moody's places Italy's Baa2 rating on review for downgrade
- Italy - WSJ headline: Italy in Turmoil as New Government Fails to Form
- Italian politics - PM designate and President to meet
- Italy - constitutional crisis imminent? Fresh elections?
- Weekend Italian politics - attempt to form government fails
North Korea:
- South Korea's Moon may join Trump, Kim in Singapore for 3-way summit
- Trump tweets - US team has arrived in North Korea to make arrangements for Summit
- Latest on North Korea - Trump / Kim meeting looks to be on again
Brexit:
- FT: UK gov preparations for a no deal Brexit "have largely ground to a halt"
- Brexit - UK's Johnson repeats call for UK to leave the European customs Union
Other:
- Y'all ready for the new week in oil trading?
- Japan data - April services PPI 0.9% y/y vs. 0.5% expected, 0.5% prior
- Weekend data from China: April industrial profit growth rebounds to 6 month high
- US / China trade tensions latest: "US presses China to sign long-term import contracts"
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 28 May 2018
Bank notes:
- JP Morgan liking EUR/JPY - says upside as North Korea risks ease
- Note on NZD/CAD - looking for topside
While the UK and US are on holidays - check these out:
- Video: Trade like a pilot with this one simple technique
- Something for the holiday - the algorithm that couldn't lose
After its pronounced weakness at the end of last week EUR managed a bit of a bounce here in Asia on Monday despite the worrying news out of Italy over the weekend - more stress there for formation of a government. In a nutshell President Mattarella has rejected the choice of finance minister (Paolo Savona), and the PM-elect (Giuseppe Conte) has spat the dummy, putting formation of the 5-Star / Lega government in much doubt. There is talk the President wants a technocratic 'caretaker' government under a former IMF official. But 5-Star and Lega together hold a parliamentary majority so it seems unlikely this option will fly.
Other options include (these are really simplified, if you'd like to argue further the intricacies of Italian politics/constitution I am not your man):
- The President backs down (leaving Italy with fierce Eurosceptic fin min) ... I reckon this is the front runner
- New elections (ugh ... says Goldman Sachs: "potential new Italian elections, most likely in October, would unlikely be seen as a positive development for the Italian economy")
- Impeachment of the President
- And I'm sure there are others I haven't thought of
Anyway, despite all this EUR/USD traded higher. One argument I've heard is that 'uncertainty' over political direction is better than having a eurosceptic finance minister in place. I ain't buying that, but, so far, I'm wrong if the EUR move is anything to go by.
On the other hand we got some promising news on the renewed likelihood of the US / North Korea summit taking place. Oh, by 'promising news' I mean the Mood-swinger-in-chief tweeted:
So, it looks like its on again!
Early moves in the yen were flows into risk and out of yen. USD/JPY managed to circa 109.80 but has since retraced to be little changed form late US trading levels on Friday as I update.
Elsewhere:
- AUD/USD is up a little, as is NZD/USD - both beneifitting from the improved risk move on NK.
- Cable is slightly to the better also, as is USD/CHF.
- Oil is offered, CAD has lost a few points alonside.
Still to come:
