Forex news for Asia trading Wednesday 26 October 2016
Australia CPI:
- Australia Q3 inflation data - More responses
- AUD/USD post CPI, sellers above 0.7700
- Australia Q3 inflation data - responses
- Australia Q3 CPI: 0.7% q/q (expected 0.5%)
- Japan Post Insurance plans to increase holdings of foreign bonds
- BOJ meet next week - what to expect?
- Westpac MNI China Consumer Sentiment Indicator (October): 117.1 (prior 115.2)
- People’s Bank of China sets yuan reference rate at 6.7705 (vs. yesterday at 6.7744)
- Japan - Services PPI (September): 0.3% y/y (vs. expected +0.2%)
- World’s highly skilled immigrants are increasingly living in just four nations!
- "China can resist a crash but can't prevent one" (Why China is different)
- The ForexLive 'keep JT out of jail' thread
- Jeff Gundlach says there'll be a deficit explosion 2018 - 20
- NZ data - International tourism’s contribution to total exports has surpassed dairy
- Brexit - secret audio of PM May with Goldman Sachs on what she really thinks
- El Erian on Brexit: Next few months critical for the UK
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday 26 October 2016
- Oil prices drop a little more - private inventory data shows bigger than expected build
- Apple Q4: EPS $1.67 .... & Revenue $46.9bn
A sharp jump today for the AUD/USD on the back of the inflation data. The data is in the bullets, above (as is more, responses etc) but in (very) brief, the headline surprised higher while the 'core' measures (the trimmed mean and weighted median) both remained subdued (for more detail see bullets above, K?). Very subdued.
So, why the jump in the AUD? Partly it was market dynamics, a few shorts being taken out on the better headline, but also partly that while the core measures (these are the measures the RBA pays attention to) were subdued indeed, they were pretty much in line with Reserve Bank of Australia forecasts. The prospect of a near term rate cut (ps. the next meeting is next week, November 1) is diminished.
Diminished, but not disappeared entirely I would suggest. Subdued core inflation, when combined with last week's less than impressive employment data will be a concern for a new RBA Governor. On this, CBA are still tipping a rate cut from the RBA next week, though they do say their conviction on the call is low ... in their own words: "without great conviction". Citi, too, are still tipping a November cut.
AUD/USD sellers are building above 0.77, through to around 0.7740 and I can't see the AUD rallying too hard on today's data from here.
OK, so much for the world's favourite country (is my bias showing?), what else?
NZD/USD moved up with the AUD (not to the same extent) but pretty quickly gave it all back (and some) before retuning to be nearly unchanged on the session.
EUR, CHF, GBP all had very small ranges and all are little changed net on the day.
USD/JPY had an initial move lower into the Tokyo morning, tracking down towards 104 before adding 40-odd points (a smidge less). News flow was light, the move mainly flow-driven but ending with USD/yen little changed net on the day.
Oil is lower after the private inventory data late in the US day showed a bigger build in crude stocks than was expected.
Regional equities:
- Nikkei -0.19%
- Shanghai -0.43%
- HK -0.81%
- ASX -1.68%
More:
