Forex news for Asia trading Thursday 15 September 2016
- Huge day of US eco data coming up - preview of Retail Sales, Philly Fed & more
- ABN Amro on the Australian jobs report: "labour market remains weak"
- Yen strength ... AUD/JPY smacked hard
- Australian employment data for August - AUD/USD dribbling lower
- Australia jobs report - Employment Change: -3.9K (expected +15K, prior +25.3K)
- Waiting on the USD/CNY setting from the PBOC? None today - China holiday
- Australia - Consumer Inflation Expectations (September): 3.3% ( prior 3.5%)
- Goldman Sachs on oil, say the risk is lower
- JPMorgan expect the BOJ to cut negative rates even more
- China holiday today - markets closed. Here's something on the yuan though
- ANZ's model on AUD/NZD suggest higher ... but here's what's needed first
- Japan - Reuters Tankan shows Manufacturing Index +5 in September
- New Zealand - Q2 GDP: 0.9 % q/q (expected 1.1% q/q, prior 0.7%)
- GBP on the move in early Asia trade
- NZ data - BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI for August: 55.1 (prior 55.8)
- SNB announcement today. Here's Bloomberg on why to expect nothing.
- Swiss National Bank policy announcement due today - preview
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday 15 September 2016
- Bank of England meeting today - preview
- NZ Q2 GDP and Aussie employment report combine to muddy the outlook for the NZD
- Economic data due from Asia today - Australian jobs report, NZ GDP
Yen strength, Nikkei weakness was the morning story in Tokyo. USD/JPY fell along with (most) yen crosses. As we go into the afternoon and I write up this wrap the yen is giving a bit back and the Nikkei is getting a bit of its mojo back too (but not too much). And, as I update the Nikkei has slipped back toward earlier lows:
USD/JPY had managed a small bump higher (it looks like a small bump now) to around 102.60 but crumbled to (briefly) tick under 102.00 as the stock market got active.
EUR/JPY fell alongside the USD/JPY; EUR/USD is basically flat on the session, as is cable and USD/CHF.
On the data front today we got New Zealand Q2 GDP that came in at a bit of a q/q miss. NZD/USD spiked lower, bounced a little (not recovering all its loss) and has since dipped back down. We ain't talking a big range though, barely more than 40 points from high to low.
The August employment report from Australia was the next focus, and it was, net, on the disappointing side. Today's report was not terrible, but it wasn't great either. The bullets above have more detail. In the bigger employment picture, despite business confidence coming along solidly on the world's biggest island, employment growth this year has been poor: people employed has increased by 67k, while for the same period in 2015 the number was 172K.
The Australian dollar dropped on the data, by around 25 or so points, bounced back a little & is now around 0.7460 with volatility (insert LOLZ here) shrinking away after those earlier swings. I reckon it looks heavy but reasonable people say there is room for a short squeeze into London time.
Gold edged higher (its since given back some) while oil is more or less flat.
'Twas a holiday in China today, with markets closed. Friday is a holiday also. Offshore yuan, of course, continues to trade. Overnight borrowing rates for those scoundrels wanting to short the CNH remained elevated, with HIBOR loans down just a fraction to 7.95% today.
Regional equities:
- Nikkei -1.51%
- Shanghai -0.68%
- HK +0.55%
- ASX -0.14%
Still to come ... central bank day in Europe:
- Swiss National Bank policy announcement due today - preview
- Bank of England meeting today - preview
- Plus... Huge day of US eco data coming up - preview of Retail Sales, Philly Fed & more
And, ICYMI ... the financing data from China for August (this was out late yesterday)
August new yuan loans (CNY) 948.7bn yuan
- expected 750bn, prior was 463.6bn
Aggregate financing, 1.47 trillion yuan
- expected 900bn, prior was 487.9bn
- Aggregate finance came in higher than of the 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecast
- Mortgage lending was cited as a big factor behind the surge
