Forex news for Asia trading Monday 1 August 2016
Fed's Dudley should have his own wrap today...
- Fed's Dudley again: Productivity disappointing, up to govmts
- RBI Governor Rajan: Global demand has been held back by deleveraging
- More from Fed's Dudley: USD strength creating challenges for exporters
- Japan PM Abe advisor reiterates opposition to helicopter money
- More from Fed's Dudley: Fed is apolitical, elections don't matter to policy
- More from Fed's Dudley - the usual, global developments important etc.
- NZ Monthly Economic Indicators (July) "point to stronger economic growth"
- Japan final manufacturing PMI for July 49.3 (49.0 preliminary)
- Moody's: China bond mkt dislocation unlikely to lead to systemic financial crisis
- China private manufacturing PMI survey (July) 50.6 (expected 48.8)
- PBOC sets USD/CNY mid-point today at 6.6277 (vs. Friday at 6.6511)
- Fed's Dudley: Should be cautious in raising rates, flatter path appropriate
- Australia - private inflation gauge (July): -0.3% m/m (prior 0.6%) and 1.0% y/y (prior 1.5%)
- China official Manufacturing PMI: 49.9 (expected 50.0, prior 50.0) & Services: 53.9 (prior 53.7)
- Australia - HIA New Home Sales for June: +8.2% m/m (prior -4.4%)
- Moody's: EU Banks broadly resilient to EBA's severe scenario in 2016 stress tests
- Moody's: NZ banking system stable
- Australia - Corelogic House price index (July): +0.8% (prior +0.5%)
- Australia - Manufacturing PMI (July): 56.4 (prior 51.8)
- Confederation of British Industry survey - business outlook weakest since Dec 2012
- Yen on the move in Asia already this morning
- USD, EUR, GBP, CHF, CAD, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley
- Reserve Bank of Australia meeting tomorrow - here comes another cut!
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 1 August 2016
- NZ - Fonterra milk price forecast for 2016 / 17 unchanged at $4.25
- Monday morning FX - 1 August 2016 - foreign exchange prices, early indications
Weekend
- Harvard economist: You're too stupid and racist to understand what's good for you
- The most dangerous ideas in economics
- At least 4 dead as militants attack energy plants in North Iraq
- UK businesses expect stagnating growth over the next 3 months
- Separate shooting incidents in Austin, Texas, leave multiple victims. At least one fatality.
- BOJ backdoor to helicopter money on the way?
- AB Inbev takeover of SABMiller is back on the table
- China says EU anti-dumping duties are "unjustifiable protection"
- The negative Brexit effect on EU GDP
- BOJ to drop its 2 year timeframe for inflation target?
Yen on the move again today in Asia, bt not the same extents as we saw last Friday, It opened trade little changed from levels seens in the late US Friday afternoon. It initially dipped under 102 but soon started to tick higher, even before Japanese markets became active, to 102.50 and then a little higher as more liquidity came in. Yen crosses pretty much followed along the same pattern and all a bit higher on the session.
There was plenty of data today, Chinese PMIs the most focus (official manufacturing and non-manufacturing along with the Caixin private manufacturing PMI). Results were mixed, with a dip for the official manufacturing PMI, a still strong official services PMI, and a move into expansion for the Caixin manufacturing PMI.
EUR and CHF are little changed on the session, both tightly range bound against the USD (higher against the yen, of course). Cable dipped towards 1.3200 early but has bounce, up toward 1.3270
Friday's USD weakness was reflected in the PBOC yuan fixing today, the biggest revaluation for the CNY against the USD since June 23.
AUD and NZD are little changed from late Friday levels, gold ditto, while oil has edged up a few cents.
Regional equities:
- Nikkei +0.38%
- Shanghai -1.25%
- HK +1.32%
- ASX +0.75%
Still to come: Central bank meetings this week - and de fun don't done
