Forex trading news and economic data headlines August 3, 2015
- US Fed not banking on wage growth before hiking rates
- June 2015 US personal income 0.4% vs 0.3% exp m/m
- July 2015 ISM manufacturing leaked early 52.7 vs 53.5 exp
- July 2015 US Markit manufacturing PMI final 53.8 vs 53.8 exp
- ECB QE count: PSP €248.9bn vs €237.9bn prior
- June 2015 US construction spending 0.1% vs 0.6% exp m/m
- ISM's Holcomb says respondent comments are quite mixed
- Fed's Powell: Market making may be less attractive for banks
- Greece ends the day with just a little 16.23% loss
- Brent and WTI oil leak to new lows
- LIBOR rigging trader sentenced to 14 years
- US stock taking it on the chin. US bond yields lower.
- US July auto industry sales rise 5.3%. In your selling rate of 17.55 million
US data came out mixed. Personal income rose by 0.4% vs 0.3% exp. but the prior month was revised lower by 0.1%. Personal spending rose by 0.2% as exp., but the prior month was revised lower to 0.7% from 0.9%. The PCE deflator rose by 0.2% as expected.
US PMI data was leaked earlier than expected and it was not great news. The index fell to 52.7 from 53.5 (and 53.5 exp). Employment fell to 52.7 from 55.5 last month. New orders rose to 56.5 from 56.0. Production also increased to 56.0 from 54.0. Prices paid fell sharply from a recent high of 49.5 back down to 44.0.
Commodity prices were down again today. Brent Crude fell below the $50 for the first time since Jan 30th. Crude oil is down 3.76% on the day. Copper, aluminum, gold are all lower.
The Fed might have to look in their crystal ball to see inflation down the road.
As far as the major currency pairs, the USDCAD was the big mover - up 0.67% on the day. Lower oil price, makes selling CAD the path of least resistance trade.
The EURUSD got a boost from the weaker ISM data, but reversed course in the US afternoon as car sales (at 17.55M rate was not too shabby). The pair did stay below the 100 and 200 hour MAs which are centered around the 1.0987-94 entering into the new trading day. The low to high trading range for the pair came in at 55 pips. That is the 4th lowest range this year. The lowest was 50 pips on May 25th which happened to be Memorial day in the US. Summer is to blame for today's lack of volatility.
The GBPUSD fared better with a 79 pip trading range. Early on, cable found support on the hourly chart against a trend line and it too was helped by the weakness in the ISM. The rise was reversed around the time London traders were heading to the exits, and the NY PM session wandered back towards the 200 hour MA at the 1.5582 level. That level will be the bullish/bearish dividing line for traders in the new day.
USDJPY did a full lap back down of the move higher seen in the Asian Pacific/London morning session. The pair could not move below the 200 hour MA at the 123.82 level though (123.89 was the low). Is that good news for the buyers in the new day? If it continues to stay above that support level.
Lots of news coming out of Australia in the new trading day including retail sales, trade and an interest rate decision (no change expected). The AUDUSD held support against the 0.7253-59 area in trading today. This area will be eyed - post the risk events - for bearish clues. Move below, and look for lower levels (are we going too 0.7000 ultimately). On the topside the 200 hour MA at the 0.7310 level will be the line in the sand on strong and/or less dovish RBA comments. The AUDUSD has tried to get above the 200 hour MA on a few occasions over the last few weeks, only to fail on each probe. Need to get above and stay above to solicit a more bullish bias from tech traders.
Good fortune with your trading.
