Forex news for US trading on October 12, 2015:
- Here's why RBS admits defeat in betting against emerging and commodity FX
- Fed's Lockhart speech will be a repeat of one given Friday - Livesquawk
- US economy is not highly exposed to China says Lockhart
- It's 50-50 on an ECB QE extension - Reuters
- BOE's Weale sees tentative signs of a productivity boost
- Lockhart: There is enough data for an Oct hike
- EU says Spain's draft budget plans misses deficit targets
- PSP rose €12.46bn vs €8.4bn prior in the latest ECB QE count
- Fed's Evans repeats that rate rises will be gradual
- Lazy Monday for European stocks
- Evan's expects 3 hikes by end of 2016
- Forex technical analysis: AUDUSD on a 9-day up streak
- Oil holds 100 day MA and falls lower. USDCAD hold 100 day MA and rises
Japan had Health-Sports Day, Canada celebrated Thanksgiving and the US had a quasi holiday (stocks were open) in observance of Columbus day. As a result, the markets took it easy and wandered in the North American session.
Fed's Lockhart said that there enough data for an October hike and 100K job gains are enough, but that December will have more data (does that mean January and February will have more data too? It is getting a bit absurd). Fed's Evans repeated a speech from last week where he said timing is less important than pace. There was little reaction which may be attributed to the holiday or to the markets "the boy that cried wolf" attitude.
The EURUSD started the NY session with a 44 pip trading range for the day, and kept it at 44 pips. It is hanging around the midpoint of the days trading range
The GBPUSD is higher on the day, and is moving away from the 200 day MA at 1.5317. The 1.5382 level held the topside on Friday and will need to be broken for further upside potential this week. The level is the 50% of the move down from the September high.
The USDJPY was with a faint pulse when trading opened (17 pip trading range through the London morning session). A move back below the 100 and 200 hour MA at 120.05 was enough to extend down to 119.89. The 36 pip range at least was able to overtake the low for the year at 28 pips set on May 4th.
Oil prices came off the > $50 highs reached on Friday and that helped the USDCAD bounce a bit. The pair also got help from the 100 day MA which was tested at 1.28945 (the low was 1.2900) and held. Seven of the last eight days were down. Today should be an up day.
The AUDUSD is on a 9 day bullish streak (up closes). The move today took the price above the 100 day MA at the 0.7367 level. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the May 14 high comes in at 0.7380. The high today came in at 0.7381. Needless to say a move above will be more bullish. China's trade balance due out in the new trading day, will have an impact on that pairs win streak. The Reuters poll is looking for 46.79B surplus (was 60.24B last month. Watch the mix. Exports are expected to decline by -6.3% while imports are expected to fall by -15.0%. NAB Business confidence (last month it came in at 1) will also be released in the new trading day in Australia.
Other key releases and events for the new trading day?
- UK inflation data (CPI YoY 0.0% Core 1.1% est.)
- German ZEW Economic Sentiment (est 6.0 vs 12.1 last)
- EU ZEW Economic sentiment (last 33.3)
- US NFIB small business index (est 95.6 vs 95.9)
- US budget is expected to show a surplus of 95B. Last year in Sept it was 105B. September is a tax collection month, hence the surplus.
