Forex trading news for April 29, 2015, US edition:
- US Q1 advance GDP +0.2% vs +1.0% expected
- FOMC statement: Sees moderate growth and job gains even after Q1 slowdown
- Full FOMC statement text comparison - Transitory the key word
- Fed says winter slowdown partly reflects transitory factors - Full text
- Hilsenrath: Fed keeps hikes on the table, blames transitory effects
- March 2015 US pending home sales 1.1% vs 1.0% exp m/m
- April 2015 German HICP flash 0.3% vs 0.2% exp y/y
- US EIA crude oil inventories +1910K vs +2781K expected
- Varoufakis: "I set the tone and I'm still responsible for talks with the eurogroup"
- Eurozone expects major reform proposals from Greece this week
- European Court of Justice details date for its ruling on ECB OMT
- BOJ set to maintain forecast for gradual inflation - Nikkei
- RBNZ: On hold at 3.5%
- Fonterra cuts milk price payout forecast
- Iran oil exports jump in April
- S&P 500 down 8 points to 2106
- Gold down $7 to $1205
- US 10-year yields up 4 bps to 2.04%
- German 10-year yields up 12 bps to 0.285%
- WTI crude up $1.58 to $58.59
- EUR and CHF lead, NZD and JPY lag
Where do we begin? At the start I guess. The GDP report was soft and there wasn't really a silver lining so the kneejerk lower in the US dollar turned into a rout. Dollar longs are a crowded position and we came close to the breaking point today, at least for the weak hands.
The euro broke above the 1.1050 level and that started a wave of panic buying up to 11.81 in what was the best day for the euro in six months. It also looks like a bit of a blowout but it's impossible to buy the dollar with any conviction until the data starts to pickup.
Cable just keeps going. That's gains in 12 of 13 days in one of the best runs since the crisis. The high was 1.5487 before the FOMC statement brushed aside the soft quarter and it briefly touched back below 1.5400.
USD/CAD didn't get quite the same kind of action but fell below 1.20 and that set off stops down to 1.1950 at the low. It later rebounded to close at 1.2010 despite a big day for oil prices.
AUD/USD finished virtually flat on the day. The market is skittish about longs above 0.8000 with Stevens always ready to jawbone and the RBA a week away. After climbing 75 pips to 0.8075, it finished back at the big figure.
USD/JPY was especially interesting. USD managed to finish slightly higher above the yen and that's a big victory for the dollar bulls. The low on the day of 118.40 tests (successfully) the recent lows so the dollar bulls still have a lot to be excited about here.
Otherwise, USD is in a bad spot technically, although it's oversold at this point and the Fed is still upbeat.
Late in the day, the kiwi plunged on a soft milk forecast and the RBNZ.
