Forex news for New York trading, 14 April 2015:
- US retail sales +0.9% vs +1.1% expected
- Control group +0.3% vs +0.5% expected
- US PPI Final Demand, +0.2% vs. +0.2% est. Ex Food and Energy +0.2%
- Cleveland Fed adds hawkish dissent to discount rate minutes
- IMF maintains global forecast but cuts US GDP
- NFIB US small business sentiment falls to nine month low
- Abe advisor Hamada says 105.00 USDJPY comment referred to PPP rate not spot rate
- API crude oil inventories: +2.6 mln barrels
- Iran oil minister says OPEC should cut output at least 5%
- EIA annual energy report: US crude exports to soar until 2020
- ECB could buy debt from two new agencies - report
- ECB said to raise Greek ELA ceiling to EU74B
- Gold down $6.40 to $1192
- WTI crude up $1.66 to $53.58
- S&P 500 up 3.4 points to 2096
- US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 1.90%
- CAD leads, USD lags
The US dollar couldn't catch a break. The retail sales report was the main driver but the IMF forecasts and NFIB data also added a touch of selling.
The market got riled up over the numbers even though sales weren't especially far from the consensus. That's the way it is in a trade that's as crowded as US dollar longs, it was the same thing after non-farm payrolls.
EUR/USD was in the drivers' seat as it ripped above 1.07 from 1.0550 before the data. It took a few pushes to get there and the peak came at the London fix, suggesting flows were part of the equation. I don't believe the move and it sagged down to 1.0650 as the day wore on.
Cable was even stronger in a jump to 1.4801 from 1.4625 but what was more impressive was the lack of any significant corrections. Dips were limited to 1.4765. Watch for another push on a break of 1.4800 but don't rule out selling on election worries when Europe rolls out of bed.
USD/CAD was hit by general USD weakness and a rise in oil prices. It fell to 1.2445 but didn't dare push closer to support around 1.2400 with the Bank of Canada up tomorrow.
AUD/USD finally found some decent support on multiple tests of 0.7560 and that provided the springboard to 0.7650 after the soft US data.
