Like a fairytale - Grimm
This a piece on 7 scenarios that could play out on the COVID-19 outbreak.
- We find that in the four scenarios where the epidemic goes global, Australia's GDP which in the 12 months to December grew just 1.7%, would suffer a hit in the first year of between 2% and 7.9%, most likely sending GDP backwards (a recession).
- In all countries the sharp hit to growth would be followed by a gradual recovery.
- The results are very sensitive to the assumptions used, including government responses in each country.
One of the authors is Warwick McKibbin, Chair in Public Policy, ANU Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis (CAMA), Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University.
Worth a read for sure. Here is the link for more.
Probably apt, unfortunately:
