Earlier previews are posted here for the data due on 23 November 2018
- Coming up at 1330GMT
- CAD traders - preview of the Canadian CPI data due on Friday
- CAD traders heads up - Friday brings Canadian data, retail sales preview
And, ICYMI, CAD is on the move (not huge) already:
Anyway, more previews now, these via RBC:
CPI:
- We are forecasting a 0.2% m/m increase in headline CPI in October (+2.4% y/y) after an unexpected 0.4% m/m decline in September. That was in part due to a full retracement of the July spike in airfares, with some potential for more gyrations from the category in this report (we assume it is unchanged). Gas prices look like they were down 3% m/m, which is similar to last October and would see them remain at +12% y/y. A main source of upside is auto prices, with a rebound expected after three straight monthly declines.
- The BoC's three core measures have averaged close to 2% for the last eight months (individually in a tight 1.9-2.2% range during that time), which supports the BoC's assertion that underlying inflation remains around their 2% target. We see no reason for a change in this report.
Retail Sales:
- We are projecting no change in the level of nominal retail sales in September. A reversal of the 0.8% m/m August gain in auto sales should be the principal negative, while flat (seasonally adjusted) gas prices leave the ex-auto and ex-auto/gas measures moderately positive at 0.4% m/m each. In line with nominal sales, retail volumes should also be flat, after three consecutive 0.2-0.3% m/m declines.
- This moderation highlights some risks to the consumer that we think will materialize more fully in 2019, given rising interest rates and still elevated household debt levels
