Inflation data for October is due at 1330GMT on Friday 23 November, along with retails sales data for September
- retail sales preview is here
previews via:
Citi:
- All three of the core measures retraced in September with headline CPI falling 0.4% MM (below consensus). While much of the softness in headline CPI was in transitory components, the pullback in the core inflation measures indicate that there are still few signs of building underlying inflationary pressures. Although growth has been robust, due to softer wage growth, we eliminate the possibility of a December rate hike and expect 3 hikes in 2019 by the BoC
HSBC:
- We look for consumer prices to decline by 0.1% in October. Typically, prices are unchanged on a m-o-m basis. However, we expect a decline in gasoline prices to tip the balance toward a small drop in prices overall, and more than offset another anticipated increase in mortgage interest costs. Since November 2017, mortgage interest costs have increased by an average 0.6% per month, boosting the year-on-year rate of increase from 0.6% to the current 6.4%. With the small drop in total CPI in the month, we expect the annual rate of increase of consumer prices to fall to 2.0% from the prior 2.2%.
TD:
- Retail sales and CPI are eyed ahead of December BoC, and we place greater emphasis on the latter. We expect CPI to rise to 2.4%, with risk for average BoC core moving to 2.1%. … Retail sales should be flat, capping off a disappointing quarter for consumer spending. Though that offers a mixed message to the rate path, markets are likely to focus more on higher core inflation.
