Earlier preview of the employment report is here:
Another few quickies.
Via NAB:
- expects employment grew 20k in November
- unemployment rate stayed at 5% (alongside an unchanged participation rate).
- there's a risk that the unemployment rate could even tick down to 4.9% if the participation rate continues the oscillating pattern evident for the past six to eight months.
RBC:
- Notwithstanding the volatility in the monthly seasonally adjusted employment data, the underlying monthly trend has been strong, averaging ~25k over the last 6 months. Other key metrics have also been firm with the trend unemployment rate continuing to move lower by almost ½pp to 5.1%, and participation elevated.
- The only wrinkle remains the still high level of underemployment consistent with ongoing slack in the labour market. Consistent with some monthly volatility, we look for a more modest +12k employment outcome in Nov with a slight lift in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate to 5.1% (from 5%).
