The twin headlines are employment change and the unemployment rate
- Employment Change: expected +20.0K, prior +32.8K
- Unemployment Rate: expected 5.0%, prior 5.0%
- Full Time Employment Change: prior was +43.2K
- Part Time Employment Change: prior was -9.5K
- Participation Rate: expected 65.6%, prior was 65.6%
Preview via ANZ:
- Following a strong 33k gain in October, we expect employment growth to have slowed to 15k in November. While growth in ANZ job ads has softened, and measures of hiring intentions and profitability have pulled back from the highs, in aggregate leading labour market indicators suggest ongoing moderate growth in jobs. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5%
Preview via Westpac (in brief):
- November is a slightly positive seasonal month and the original data suggests that a sound gain in November is possible. The business surveys, while moderating, are not pointing to a meaningful slowdown in employment growth
- October... continuation of the trend improvement in unemployment. In the month. Unemployment was flat at 5.0%, but this is a good result seeing as the 0.3ppt drop in unemployment to 5.0% in September was due to a large drop in participation rather than a strong employment print. As such, there was always a risk participation would bounce in October. Participation did lift but the 0.1ppt rise to 65.6% still left it under the 65.7% print in August
- Holding participation flat at 65.6%, a 20k gain in employment is enough to hold the unemployment rate flat at 5.0%. In terms of risk, the ABS notes that in November, the sample group rolling out of the survey has a higher unemployment rate than the sample average so rolling that group out will lower the average. All else held equal, this presents downside risk to our unemployment forecast for November
