This is what we’ve got coming up at 0130GMT:
- Employment Change August: expected +10.0, prior- 10.2K
- Unemployment Rate August: expected 5.8%, prior 5.7%
- Full Time Employment Change August:prior -6.7K
- Part Time Employment Change August: prior -3.5K
- Participation Rate August; expected 65.2%, prior 65.1%
The headline ‘ employment change’ figure is always volatile:
The unemployment rate will also be a focus, its been stepping higher:
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So, what to watch for?
On the immediate headline of employment change, if we see a result much higher than expected we are likely to see further AUD strength. Its had a big run up but has spent the last 24 hours sideways (and then a little higher in the American timezone). As the kiwi showed us this morning, despite long runs there is often a bit left in it to squeeze.
On the other hand, a result lower than expected is likely to see a bit of buying pressure on the AUD ease, though I think any falls will be viewed as a dip-buying opportunity.
As always, it pays to be attentive to pre-release moves to get a feel for market positioning.
My inclination is to look for a less-than-expected surprise. This data is ahead for before the election and there may have been some reluctance to hire. Don’t chisel that in stone, just a thought and comments/views welcome.
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On the unemployment rate – also watch this. As it continues higher the RBA is watching. Part of their mandate is “the maintenance of full employment in Australia”, so rising levels of unemployment is a concern and may influence a further easing.
