The market is very long AUD and well in the money. The RBA decision is at 0330 GMT and the trade between now and then will be to cover longpositions, which should send AUD/USD back below 1.07.
The decision itself is tricky. The OIS market is pricing an 82% chance of a cut so there will be a small spike lower if/when it comes. Beyond that the market will be looking for a signal about more cuts. Currently a 25% chance of a second cut is priced in at the March 7 meeting. That seems a tad unrealistic so the trade may be to sell now and buy on a drop after the decision.
