Another preview of the RBNZ meeting next week
- RBNZ to leave OCR at 1.75%
- The Governor and the mandate may have changed, but the broad story will remain the same
- Developments since February have been positive for medium-term inflation
- But given the balance of risks, we expect the RBNZ will retain a cautious approach, with the policy outlook broadly similar
- We expect the Monetary Policy Committee will be cautious not to change its messaging abruptly and that the RBNZ will be broadly comfortable with its previous communication and policy strategy
- A clear message that acknowledges recent developments, but is consistent with a gradually evolving policy outlook will be the aim
- The RBNZ will remain cautious until it sees a definitive broadening in inflationary pressures, with the OCR to remain on hold for some time yet
- We continue to pencil in August 2019 for the first increase
Just to note, it will be the first meeting of new governor Adrian Orr as well as the first meeting after the new PTA (Policy Target Agreement) was announced here back in March.
Other previews of the RBNZ meeting:
