While we await the Reserve Bank of Australia announcement at 0430GMT, keeping track of various calls on the data for release tomorrow
- Q2 GDP due at 0130GMT on Wednesday 3 September 2019
WPAC forecast here
Via fund manager AMP, in brief:
June qtr GDP possibly "saved" by net exports with +0.6% contribution
- & public demand +1.7%
- offsetting yesterdays soft data
We stick to +0.4%qoq/+1.3%yoy
- the weakest annual growth in 19 years
- given other "unknowns" in the GDP release a negative is still possible
Adding … CBA:
- 0.4% q/q and 1.5% y/y forecast
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ps, I have noted a few about the place saying a negative result tomorrow would drop Australia into recession, ending the 27 year run. This is incorrect, the technical definition of recession is widely accepted as two consecutive quartes of negative. So if Q2 was negative we'd be awaing the result from Q3.
Of course other folks have other definitions they like to use, I'm talking about the widely accepted one. If you prefer other definitions, by all means you do you.
