Bitcoin is heading for its worst week since February, down 13%, as ETF outflows hit a record 13-day streak and focus turns to Monday's Strategy disclosure for signs of stabilisation.
Summary:
- Bitcoin is down 13% this week, its worst performance since February
- Spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a 13th consecutive day of net outflows, the longest streak on record, with total assets falling to $82.8bn from $107.8bn on May 14
- The initial trigger was Strategy's bombshell disclosure that it sold 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million, its first sale since 2022, to cover preferred stock dividend obligations
- The sale prompted $594 million in long liquidations across crypto exchanges within a 24-hour window
- Analysts note bitcoin is failing to act as a digital gold hedge, inflation hedge, or high-beta tech proxy, leaving it without a dominant narrative
- One analyst flags the four-year cycle as a guide, projecting a potential price trough below $40,000 in late October if historical patterns hold
Bitcoin is on course for its worst weekly performance since February, down 13% and stripped of the narratives that have historically anchored investor confidence. The deterioration has been swift and broad, driven by a combination of evaporating demand, aggressive liquidations, and capital rotating away from crypto into assets with clearer near-term momentum.
All eyes are now on Monday, when Strategy is due to disclose its latest bitcoin activity. The company, led by Michael Saylor, rattled markets earlier this week by revealing it had sold 32 BTC for around $2.5 million, its first disposal since 2022 and only its second ever. The sale was small in absolute terms, representing less than 0.004% of holdings, and was framed as a mechanism to fund preferred stock dividend obligations. But the symbolism was damaging. Saylor's long-standing refusal to sell bitcoin had become a pillar of structural confidence in the market. The reversal, however modest, was enough to crack that confidence and trigger a cascade of long liquidations worth $594 million in a single 24-hour window.
What happens Monday matters. If Strategy discloses it returned to buying aggressively in the days following last week's sale, it would signal the sell was a one-off and could help put a floor under sentiment. If it shows further selling or inactivity, it risks validating fears that one of the market's most reliable structural buyers has changed its posture. Analysts note that following the company's previous bitcoin sale, it repurchased more than it sold within two days. Some expect a similar or more aggressive response this time.
The broader backdrop is unflattering. Spot bitcoin ETFs have now recorded 13 straight days of net outflows, the longest such streak on record, with total assets across the funds falling from $107.8 billion in mid-May to $82.8 billion. Meanwhile, equity markets have been hitting all-time highs, with chipmakers and AI-linked stocks drawing in the speculative capital that might otherwise have found its way into crypto.
Bitcoin is also failing its own narratives. It is not behaving as a safe-haven amid geopolitical stress, nor as a hedge against inflation, nor as a high-beta proxy for tech sentiment. In the absence of a defining story, price action becomes flow-driven and disorderly.
Regulatory hopes have also dimmed. The Clarity Act, which would establish a market structure framework for crypto, faces an uncertain legislative path as priorities shift and political disagreements persist, removing what analysts had viewed as a potential re-engagement catalyst.
Longer-term, some analysts continue to defer to the four-year cycle as a framework. On that basis, the current drawdown could extend well into the second half of the year before finding a durable bottom, one analysts suggest, potentially below $40,000 in late October. Monday's disclosure will not resolve all of that, but it will tell the market something important about whether its most visible buyer is still in the trade.
---
Bitcoin's 13% weekly decline and 13-day ETF outflow streak signal a broader shift in risk appetite, with capital visibly rotating toward semiconductor and AI-linked equities.
The market is watching Monday's Strategy holdings disclosure closely; an aggressive buyback would likely provide a sentiment floor, while further selling or inactivity could deepen the rout. FWIW I think there is no way Saylor did not buy more this week.He has his holdings to defend.
Legislative uncertainty around the Clarity Act removes a potential near-term catalyst, leaving bitcoin without a clear demand driver in the short term.
