The US is closer to resuming major combat operations against Iran than it was 24 hours ago after Iranian forces fired on US vessels and struck UAE targets, senior officials told Fox News, as the ceasefire holds but frays.
- Senior US officials told Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin that the US is closer to resuming major combat operations against Iran than it was 24 hours earlier, following Iranian attacks on US vessels and UAE territory using missiles, drones and fast boats
- The assessment came as the Strait of Hormuz ceasefire was being tested at the outset of Project Freedom, per the Fox News report
- Officials said the final decision on whether to resume military operations rests with President Donald Trump and Iran's new leadership, with no orders to end the ceasefire having been issued, according to Fox News
- The US military has been described as standing ready to respond and as rearmed and retooled, though its current focus remains on defensive operations to protect vessels in the Gulf, per senior officials cited by Fox News
- No orders to restart the bombing campaign have been received and officials confirmed there has been no un-pausing of the ceasefire, according to the report
The United States is edging toward a resumption of major combat operations against Iran, senior officials warned on Monday, after Iranian forces fired on US naval vessels and launched missile, drone and fast boat attacks against the UAE during an active ceasefire, bringing the fragile pause in hostilities to its most dangerous moment since it began.
The warnings were delivered to Fox News chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin, with officials stating directly that the US is closer to resuming large-scale military operations than it was 24 hours prior. The deterioration came as the ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz was being tested at the start of Project Freedom, a development that has placed the durability of the pause in hostilities under immediate and acute pressure.
Despite the gravity of the incidents, officials were careful to draw a distinction between proximity to resumed combat and a decision to resume it. No orders to end the ceasefire have been given, they said, and no instruction to restart the bombing campaign has been received. The ceasefire, in their characterisation, has not been un-paused. For now, US military attention remains fixed on defensive operations, with forces focused on protecting American and allied vessels operating in the Gulf.
The decision on whether that defensive posture converts into renewed offensive action rests, officials said, with President Donald Trump and Iran's new leadership. The framing places the outcome in the hands of two decision-makers whose calculations are at present opaque. Trump has consistently signalled willingness to use military force while leaving room for negotiated outcomes, and Iran's new leadership inherits a conflict whose trajectory they did not initiate but must now manage.
What is not in question is the military readiness of US forces in the theatre. Officials described the military as rearmed and retooled, language that signals the logistical and operational preparation for resumed combat is complete. The constraint is political, not military, and that constraint is now being stress-tested by Iranian actions that, under almost any conventional framework, would constitute a breach of ceasefire terms.
The combination of Iranian aggression against US forces and Gulf state territory, a US military poised to respond, and a political decision point sitting with two unpredictable leaderships creates the most volatile set of conditions the region has faced since the conflict began. Energy markets, which have been pricing a degree of Hormuz disruption but not an outright resumption of major combat, may be materially underweight the risk that the next 24 to 48 hours brings a decisive and rapid change in the situation.
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Iranian attacks on US naval vessels and UAE territory during an active ceasefire represent a qualitative escalation that markets will struggle to absorb calmly. The confirmation that the US military is rearmed, retooled and in a defensive posture in the Gulf raises the immediate risk premium on Strait of Hormuz transit to its highest point since the conflict began. Any decision by Trump or Tehran to resume major combat operations would almost certainly trigger an acute supply shock across Gulf energy infrastructure, with Hormuz closure or further restriction the most immediate price catalyst. The fact that no ceasefire termination order has been given offers thin comfort: the gap between defensive posture and resumed offensive operations has narrowed to a matter of presidential or Iranian leadership decision, with no buffer of process or negotiation visibly in place.
