Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl, citing 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East output losses driving a record 11-12 mln bpd global inventory draw in April.
Info via Reuters report.
Summary
- Goldman Sachs raises Q4 2026 Brent crude forecast to $90/bbl, up from prior forecast of $80/bbl
- Q4 2026 WTI forecast lifted to $83/bbl from $75/bbl
- Bank estimates 14.5 mln bpd of Middle East crude output losses
- Global oil inventories drawing at a record pace of 11-12 mln bpd in April
- Global oil market swings from a 1.8 mln bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 mln bpd deficit in Q2 2026
- Global oil demand forecast to fall 1.7 mln bpd in Q2 2026 and 0.1 mln bpd for full year 2026
- Prior Q2 2026 Brent forecast was $99/bbl, trimmed to $90/bbl after US-Iran ceasefire; Q2 WTI was $91/bbl, cut to $87/bbl
- Q3 2026 forecasts unchanged at $82/bbl Brent and $77/bbl WTI
Goldman Sachs has raised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026, lifting its Brent crude target to $90 per barrel and WTI to $83 per barrel, as the bank warned that massive Middle East production losses are driving global oil inventories lower at a pace never seen before.
The bank estimates that 14.5 million barrels per day of Middle East crude output has been lost, a figure that is pushing global oil inventories to draw at a record rate of 11 to 12 million barrels per day in April alone. The scale of that drawdown underlines how severe the supply shock has become and how quickly the global oil balance has shifted.
Goldman's updated forecasts mark a sharp upgrade from its previous Q4 base case of $80 per barrel for Brent and $75 per barrel for WTI. The revision also reflects a broader reassessment of the global supply and demand balance, with the bank now projecting that the oil market will swing from a 1.8 million barrel per day surplus in 2025 to a deficit of 9.6 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. That is an extraordinary turnaround in a matter of months, driven almost entirely by the collapse in Middle East output.
The demand side of the equation offers limited relief. Goldman forecasts that global oil demand will fall by 1.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026 and by 0.1 million barrels per day for the full year. While that demand destruction provides some cushion, it falls well short of offsetting the scale of supply losses, leaving the market in a deep and worsening deficit.
The updated Q4 forecasts sit alongside Goldman's broader forecast trajectory for 2026. The bank trimmed its Q2 2026 Brent forecast to $90 per barrel from $99 after the US and Iran agreed a ceasefire, and cut its Q2 WTI forecast to $87 per barrel from $91, citing a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and early signs of improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Q3 2026 forecasts were left unchanged at $82 per barrel for Brent and $77 per barrel for WTI.
The risks to Goldman's price outlook remain skewed firmly to the upside. If Middle East production losses prove deeper or more sustained than the base case assumes, prices could move considerably higher than the bank's current forecasts imply.
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Goldman's updated forecasts represent a significant hawkish shift on oil, with the Q4 Brent target lifted to $90/bbl from $80/bbl and WTI to $83/bbl from $75/bbl. The scale of the numbers is striking, an 11-12 million bpd inventory draw in April alone is without precedent, and the swing from a 1.8 million bpd surplus in 2025 to a 9.6 million bpd deficit in Q2 2026 underlines how rapidly the supply picture has deteriorated. The demand destruction estimate of 1.7 million bpd in Q2 provides some offset but is nowhere near sufficient to balance a market facing losses of this magnitude. The overall signal is strongly bullish for near-term crude prices, with the risk skewed further to the upside if Middle East production losses prove deeper or longer-lasting than the base case assumes.
