The marginal delay to LNG normalisation, pushed from end-June to end-July, is a small but meaningful signal that the physical market is not clearing as quickly as hoped following the MOU signing. The Hormuz tail risk is the most market-sensitive element of the note: a move above 100 EUR/MWh this winter would represent more than a doubling of Goldman's 2H26 base case and would have severe knock-on effects for European industrial demand, power prices and inflation. That scenario remains contingent on a sustained blockade resumption, which is not Goldman's central case, but the explicit quantification of it will anchor trader thinking on the upside. The steep descent in Goldman's 2028-29 forecasts to 19-16 EUR/MWh reflects confidence that LNG supply additions will eventually overwhelm the current tightness, keeping the long end of the gas curve under pressure.
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Goldman Sachs held its TTF gas forecasts near unchanged at 41/30 EUR/MWh for 2H26/2027, pushed LNG normalisation to end-July, and warned prices could exceed 100 EUR/MWh this winter if Hormuz stays blocked.
Summary:
- Goldman Sachs maintained its 2H26 TTF gas price forecast at 41 EUR/MWh and its 2027 forecast at 30 EUR/MWh, marginally lower than prior estimates of 42/30 EUR/MWh
- LNG flow normalisation is now expected by end-July, a month later than the bank's previous end-June assumption
- Risks to the 2026-27 price outlook remain skewed to the upside
- If the Hormuz blockade were to largely continue, Goldman estimates TTF would need to rise above 100 EUR/MWh this winter to price out competing Asian LNG demand
- The bank maintains a bearish 2028-29 TTF view at 19-16 EUR/MWh, with risks to that period skewed to the downside
Goldman Sachs has held its European natural gas price forecasts largely steady while pushing back its timeline for LNG market normalisation by one month, and flagged that a resumption of the Hormuz blockade could drive TTF prices above 100 EUR/MWh this winter.
The bank kept its second-half 2026 TTF forecast at 41 EUR/MWh, down only marginally from a prior estimate of 42 EUR/MWh, and maintained its 2027 average forecast at 30 EUR/MWh. Goldman said risks to both years remain skewed to the upside, reflecting the fragility of the current geopolitical settlement and the pace at which LNG flows are returning to the market.
On that last point, Goldman revised its normalisation assumption from end-June to end-July, a modest but telling shift that suggests the physical LNG market is taking longer to recover from the Hormuz disruption than the bank had initially projected. The delay reflects lingering hesitancy among shipowners and insurers to resume normal routing, a dynamic consistent with reports of nearly 500 vessels remaining anchored outside the strait despite the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.
The most striking element of the note was Goldman's quantification of the downside scenario. Should the Hormuz blockade largely continue rather than ease, the bank estimates TTF would need to trade above 100 EUR/MWh this winter to generate enough demand destruction in Asia to rebalance the European market. At more than double the base case, such a level would represent a severe energy shock for European consumers and industry heading into the heating season.
Beyond the near term, Goldman maintained a distinctly bearish view on the gas market from 2028 onward, forecasting TTF at 19 EUR/MWh in 2028 and 16 EUR/MWh in 2029, with risks to those years skewed to the downside. The bank's long-run bearishness reflects expectations that a wave of new LNG supply capacity will come online and progressively erode the tightness that has characterised the market since the 2022 energy crisis.
