The Australian dollar eased after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest policy statement struck a neutral tone, disappointing investors who had anticipated a more hawkish message.
According to TD Securities, the RBA’s balanced language “took some shine off the Aussie” as markets unwound modest long positions built ahead of the decision.
TD noted the U.S. dollar is staging a tactical bounce, with potential for further strength if the upcoming ADP employment report surprises to the upside. However, strategists at the bank continue to favour buying dips in AUD/USD near 0.6440, around the 200-day moving average, viewing the pullback as an opportunity rather than a trend shift.
TD retains its call for RBA rate cuts in May and August 2026, consistent with its view that unemployment will climb over 2026, giving policymakers scope to gradually ease monetary policy.
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Gotta say, I'm in dispute with TD here, I thought the statement and SOMP were on the hawkish side rather than neutral.
Later from the RBA Governor:
