RBNZ Gov Hawkseby: Central projection is based on cash rate on hold through 2026

  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand press conference following the 25bp rate cut
Reserve Bank of New Zealand rbnz 15 August 2025 2

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Hawkseby

  • Won’t be disclosing votes today
  • Feel risks are balanced
  • We are in a great position to mitigate risks
  • Central projection is based on cash rate on hold through 2026
  • See signs labour market stabilising
  • We’re now seeing economic indicators picking up across all high frequency indicators
  • Current cash rate supportive and stimulatory
  • Has been a challenging year for economy
  • We retain full optionality on cash rate
  • Every option on the table
  • We are a bit worried about inflation risks globally

The RBNZ cut tis cash rate by 25bp, which is expected by most in the marekt to be the final rate cut of the cycle. Indeed, Hawkseby says above the Bank's forecasts are based on being on hold through 2026.

The NZD rose after the RBNZ decision based on expectations that rate cut cycle is over. I gave a heads up to this earlier this week:

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Earlier:

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