Westpac expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.6% at its meeting today, noting that a stronger-than-expected August inflation print is likely to add a cautious note to the central bank’s statement.
The bank maintains that rate cuts are coming, but the timing has become less certain. While a November move remains its base case, Westpac acknowledges the risk that easing could be delayed or proceed more gradually than previously thought. It still sees cuts in November, February and May as the most likely path.
Analysts downplayed the inflation surprise and recent geopolitical developments as signs of renewed price pressures, highlighting instead a softening labour market, with slower job growth and declining vacancies. With the economy near full employment and inflation within target, the RBA is expected to avoid rushing into cuts — but nor is it likely to keep policy restrictive for too long.
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RBA Statement is due at 2.30pm Sydney time:
- 0430 GMT'
- 0030 US Eastern time
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock's news conference follows an hour later.
Earlier preivews:
- AUDUSD pulls back into a key resistance: RBA and US labour market data in focus
- CBA warn RBA path muddied as inflation risks rise. No cut this week, November cut in doubt
- RBA to hold rates at 3.60% next week, November cut hinges on Q3 CPI – Reuters poll
- ICYMI - NAB pushes back Reserve Bank of Australia cut call as CPI surprises higher
