The Reserve Bank of Australia is widely expected to hold its cash rate at 3.60% when it meets on September 30, according to all 39 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll. Economists said the central bank can afford to wait for the Q3 CPI before resuming easing, with the labour market still relatively tight despite a modest uptick in unemployment.
While the median forecast remains for the cash rate to fall to 3.35% by year-end, some participants pushed back expectations for a November cut after August CPI accelerated to 3.0% y/y. The RBA has already reduced rates three times this year — in February, May and August — following quarterly inflation releases.
Most respondents (32 of 39) see another 25bp cut by end-2025, though seven now expect no further change. Banks are split: ANZ, CBA and Westpac forecast a November move, while NAB sees the RBA on hold until May. Longer term, most economists expect at least one more cut in early 2026, though some caution that if inflation or growth surprise to the upside, the central bank may pause.
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At the margin, a unanimous call for the RBA to hold and doubts around a November cut offer modest support for the Aussie, though moves will hinge on the upcoming Q3 CPI.
