The Reserve Bank of Australia signalled a more balanced policy stance in the minutes of its November 3–4 meeting, saying it could keep the cash rate unchanged for longer if incoming data proves stronger than expected, even as it still sees scenarios where further easing may be required. The board judged the current 3.6% cash rate as “slightly restrictive,” but noted that might no longer be the case given the recent rebound in housing credit and firmer consumer demand.
While the RBA has delivered three rate cuts this year, it opted to hold policy steady in November due to higher inflation, signs of demand resilience and a revitalised housing market. Members said they can afford to be patient while assessing new data on spare capacity, the labour market and the degree of policy restrictiveness. The minutes also flagged “a little more” underlying inflationary pressure than previously assessed, and now see inflation hovering above the 2–3% band until mid-2026.
The bank’s tone on the labour market has shifted after October employment surged and the jobless rate fell back to 4.3%, helping markets scale back expectations for further cuts. Still, the board acknowledged that if growth disappoints or the labour market weakens materially, more easing may be needed. The RBA noted the Australian dollar remains near its estimated fair value and said global downside risks have eased, even as global growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2025.
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The minutes from the November 3-4 meeting.
From the day:
