Reserve Bank of Australia March 31/April 1 meeting minutes (full text).
Not yet possible to determine timing of next move in rates
Not appropriate at this stage for policy to react to potential risks
May meeting would be opportune time to reconsider, decision was not predetermined
Possible that global uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could have significant impact
Global risks to growth had increased, were tilted to the downside
Board saw risks on upside and downside for Australian economy and inflation
Important to safeguard progress on inflation and not ease policy "prematurely"
Labour market still considered tight, labour costs too high and productivity low
Possibility labour market not as tight as thought, wage growth could continue to slow
Trimmed mean inflation likely fell below 3% in Q1
Data pointed to genuine improvement in consumer demand, beyond just sales events
Board considered run down of RBA government bond holdings, saw no reason to change pace
Governance board to consider risks in scale and maturity of bond holdings
AUD/USD is doing very little after the minutes.
The meeting concluded a day before Trump's April 2 'reciprocal tariffs' bumbling kicked off. That was two weeks ago and the picture is still murky. Perhaps we'll get some clarity prior to the 19-20May Reserve Bank of Australia meeting (not holding my breath). A cut seems to be likely at that meeting:
