- We're looking at the same data as markets are
- But won't say if pricing is right or wrong
- Our assessment depends on the data
- Difficult to say that we have any bias on policy
- We probably still feel that policy is still restrictive
- It all depends on what the outlook towards the economy is
- Can't just take the monthly CPI at face value, need to take it with a grain of salt while scrutinising other details
- Services inflation is a bit sticky
- There could be a couple of more rate cuts, or there could be not
- We're going to have to wait on the data
I think the message seems clear. It's all going to be on the data and the RBA will interpret the monthly CPI to however they see fit to the narrative that they want to sell. For now, it means that another rate cut by year-end isn't a given but it's not off the table either. AUD/USD remains higher, up 0.4% to 0.6605 from around 0.6585 before the RBA earlier today.
