- We discussed holding and outlook for policy, being cautious
- There are mixed signals on the tightness of financial conditions
- We still got a little bit of tightness that will take a little bit of heat out of the economy to bring inflation back down
- It's possible that there's no more rate cuts but also possible that there will be some more
- But as said before, we didn't go up as high (on rates) so we don't have to come down as far
- A rate hike was not discussed
- We have judged that things are restrictive but the closer we get to neutral, the less we know
- The board is definitely targeting 2.5% mark for inflation, "just below 3%" is not good enough
- It's an open question about whether there are many more rate cuts to come
- We do not give forward guidance
- There is still much uncertainty on inflation
- We are watching things very carefully
- We think we are close to neutral and will be going meeting by meeting to see if whether outlook is still reasonable
- The board does not have a bias on monetary policy
Her remarks certainly don't sound like they're in a rush to be cutting again next. Barring any major surprises in the data, we shouldn't see much of a change to the RBA outlook going into the turn of the year. The next key quarterly inflation report will only fall on 28 January 2026, so don't expect the RBA to feel compelled to cut in December. As things stand, markets are pricing in ~92% odds of no change for that.
