- Inflation remains within the target range
- But recent data indicates there could be more upwards pressure than we thought in August
- Labour market has remained solid
- The economy is in a good spot
- Inflation is not running away
- Lowering inflation is not lowering the price level, but lowering the rate in which price is increasing
- There has been a bit of an upside surprise on inflation and activity data
- We'll make November decision based on the data
- Have to see if data will point us towards holding rates again or cutting again
- Will look at things meeting by meeting
She's just mostly reaffirming the narrative that they could pause or cut again by year-end. Again, it's all about keeping their options open and that is what she is selling today. At the balance, everything here and the statement remains just ever so slightly more hawkish but nothing that really pushes rate cuts off the table completely. Much like what Bullock says, it's all about the data now.
