- The world economy actually did okay despite tariffs threat last year
- It is still possible that if Middle East conflict resolves, everything turns out okay
- But we are alert to the risks and if circumstances change
- If the world economy is going to be in big trouble, that will have different implications for inflation
- And if we have to change tack on policy, we will do so
- "No comment" on whether herself or Hauser looked to be pushing for a rate hike ahead of today
- Hauser laid out arguments for hiking and for holding, did not express a view one way or the other
- Markets perhaps misinterpreted comments by Hauser
- Not going to divulge what the cash rate recommendation was for today
- Reaffirms that "the direction isn't the issue, it was the timing"
- The rate hike today does not say anything about the forward path
- The forward path for rates remains uncertain
- A 50 bps rate hike would have been a lot
- Rates are in the middle of the range of neutral
The most interesting question was arguably the one on her view and Hauser's in the lead up to today's meeting. In case you missed it, Hauser's comments here led to a significant shift in expectations ahead of the RBA meeting this week. Before this, markets were pricing in a rate cut as perhaps being a coin toss. But coming into today, the odds of that have jumped up to ~82% prior to the decision.
Bullock defends that he did not give anything away though, reaffirming that there was a "misinterpretation" on the part of markets. Adding that the podcast was scheduled for weeks in advance.
Well, I would say it wasn't the worst of things or slip ups (if you can even call it that). In fact, it doesn't seem like much at all. But yeah, these journalists gotta find something to try and fault as always.
AUD/USD is up around 15 pips since she spoke, trading at 0.7075 currently - up 0.1% on the day.
