- Prior was 3.60%
- The decision was unanimous
- The last cut was in August
- The next decision is Feb 3
Highlights from the statement:
- Recent data suggests risks to inflation have tilted to the upside, but it will take "a little longer" to assesses the persistence of inflation pressures
- Various indicators suggest that labor market conditions remain a little tight
- Board will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of the outlook and risks to guide its decisions
- Economic activity continues to recover
- Uncertainty in the global economy remains significant but so far there has been minimal impact on overall growth and trade in Australia's major trading partners
Is this the bottom in rates? The market is pricing in a hike by August 2026.
AUD/USD fell about 15 pips on the headlines but quickly recovered, suggesting the market was worried about something more hawkish. A bit of the March hike probability has faded, down to about 27% from 33%.
The upcoming inflation figures are going to be major AUD movers.
RBA rate history
