The economic and event calendar in Asia today, Tuesday, December 23, 2025, is nearly empty. We do get RBA December meeting minutes and that's about it.
- Due at 0030 GMT / 1930 US Eastern time
I've posted a preview of what seems likely from these below.
Summary:
The Reserve Bank of Australia minutes are likely to reinforce that the easing phase is over, with policy now in an extended pause rather than moving toward rate cuts.
The Board is expected to emphasise growing discomfort with inflation, noting signs of a broader-based pick-up and upside risks despite caution around the new monthly CPI series.
Stronger-than-expected private demand, renewed housing momentum and still-tight labour-market conditions are likely to be framed as sources of ongoing inflation pressure.
Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference comments suggest the minutes will show rate hikes were not actively considered in December, but scenarios for further tightening were discussed.
Markets will be alert for language signalling that if inflation fails to slow convincingly, renewed tightening could come back onto the agenda as early as the February meeting.
RBA minutes preview: what the December record is likely to show
When the Reserve Bank of Australia releases the minutes of its December meeting later today, markets will be looking to gauge just how close the Board is to re-opening the door to tighter policy, even as rates were left unchanged.
At the meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 3.60%, but the accompanying statement and Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference struck a noticeably firmer tone than in recent months. The minutes are therefore likely to reinforce the idea that the easing cycle has ended for now, and that policy is now in a holding pattern with a tightening bias rather than an easing one.
What the minutes are most likely to emphasise
The minutes are expected to show a detailed discussion around inflation risks, with the Board acknowledging that while inflation has fallen substantially from its 2022 peak, recent data point to a renewed and potentially broader-based pick-up. Members are likely to reiterate caution around interpreting the new monthly CPI series, but also to note that some of the recent strength may prove persistent and therefore warrants close monitoring.
On activity, the minutes should underline that momentum in private demand has been stronger than anticipated, supported by both consumption and investment, alongside renewed strength in housing activity and prices. This backdrop, combined with easier financial conditions earlier in the year and policy lags still flowing through, is likely to be framed as a source of upside risk to inflation rather than reassurance.
Labour-market discussion in the minutes is likely to echo the statement’s message: conditions have eased modestly, but remain “a little tight”. Expect emphasis on low underutilisation, elevated capacity-utilisation measures and continued labour shortages reported by firms, alongside unease about still-strong unit labour cost growth.
How Bullock’s press conference may shape the record
Governor Bullock’s remarks from her press conference that followed the statement on the day suggest the minutes will confirm that the Board did not actively consider a rate hike at the December meeting, but did discuss the circumstances under which further tightening might be required. Her repeated emphasis on meeting-by-meeting decision-making, caution around reacting to single data points, and a clear focus on upcoming inflation and labour-market data is likely to be reflected in the minutes.
Importantly, the record is also expected to show that rate cuts were not part of the discussion, with the balance of risks judged to have shifted toward the upside.
Market lens
For markets, the key risk is that the minutes read as more uncomfortable with inflation than the statement alone implied, reinforcing the idea of an extended pause with a live tightening option should inflation fail to slow convincingly into early 2025.
Bonus! What economists are saying
Following the December meeting, several major banks updated their outlooks for RBA policy. Forecasts from
- Citi, Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise
- NAB, NAB sees RBA hiking twice in 2026, clashing with market expectations for extended hold
- CBA, CBA sees February RBA rate hike as growth runs hot. Citi & NAB also expect February hike.
are for rate hikes soon. The forecast from
broadly converges on the view that the easing phase is over for now, but does not project renewed tightening.
