National Australia Bank RBA forecast a 50bp Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in May.
- followed by further 25bp cuts in July, August, November 2025
- and February 2026
To take rates to 2.6%, compared to NAB's earlier forecast for rates to fall to 3.1%.
Citing:
- "Risks to both global and domestic growth have shifted to the downside"
- "restrictive policy stance in Australia is no longer appropriate"
- situation with tariffs remains fluid, RBA could have scope to go slower should Trump dial back temper the levies, as he did on Wednesday
- "for now, we think the distribution of risks to both growth and inflation in Australia have shifted such that the central bank is required to act with some sense of urgency"
