National Australia Bank forecasts the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut rates in November, followed by another move in February.
This will take the cash rate to 3.1% by early 2026. Says the pace of easing will be gradual rather than aggressive, with policymakers wanting to ensure inflation remains within target while avoiding unnecessary strain on the economy.
NAB cites:
- moderating inflation
- a softening labour market
- subdued growth
Risks remain on both sides:
- stronger wage growth or persistent services inflation could slow the RBA’s path
- weaker global demand or further trade disruptions could accelerate cuts
