It should be a non-event, with the RBA set to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.60% this time around. This follows from their decision to cut rates here in August. Meanwhile, the statement language and forward guidance is not expected to change by much - if at all. As such, that won't leave market players with all too much to work with if things play out accordingly.
Traders are expecting ~92% odds of no change today with just ~18 bps of rate cuts priced in by year-end. There will be just two more meeting dates, one in November and one in December, after this.
Anyway, let's just mark down the key wordings from the previous statement to see if they will once again align with the RBA communique later today. I would certainly expect that, in particular the bit on forward guidance as they would want to keep their options open. Keeping that flexibility is the name of the game.
- Inflation has continued to moderate
- The outlook remains uncertain
- Uncertainty in the world economy remains elevated
- Domestically, private demand appears to have been recovering gradually
- Various indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain a little tight, although have eased further in recent months
- There is a risk that consumption growth is a little slower than expected, which could weigh on growth in aggregate demand and lead to weaker labour market conditions
- Maintaining price stability and full employment is the priority
- Will be attentive to the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions
- Focused on its mandate to deliver price stability and full employment and will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome
