Deutsche Bank has revised its rate call for the Reserve Bank of Australia, now forecasting a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming 8 July meeting.
The bank had previously expected the first move in August but now sees cuts in both July and August, followed by a third 25bp reduction in November.
The shift reflects softer economic signals and growing confidence that inflation is easing sufficiently to allow the RBA to begin normalising policy sooner than anticipated.
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The data yesterday ICYMI:
There are always caveats around the monthly inflation data vs the official quarterly. I popped up a run down of them here, also yesterday:
But, the caveats are not, IMO, going to stop the RBA from cutting at its July 7-8 meeting. This is not a brave call, almost everyone now expects a July cut.
The year so far from the Reserve Bank of Australia:
- February 17-18: 25 basis point cash rate cut
- March 31-April 1: Left the cash rate on hold
- May 19-20: 25 basis point cash rate cut
