- Q2 balance of opinion on indicators of future sales is +15, down from +24 in Q1.
- Separate BOC Q2 Business Outlook Survey: Business survey indicator fell to -0.39 from -0.35 in Q1 (revised).
- Bank of Canada Q2 Survey of Business Leaders: Inflation expectations declined after the Iran ceasefire was signed in mid-June.
- Separate BOC Q2 Survey of Consumers: For the next 12 months, 54.6% of Canadians expect a recession, down from 55.7% in Q1.
- BOC Survey: 44% of firms expect inflation to be above 3% for the next two years, up from 11% in Q1.
- BOC Survey: 17% of firms expect Canada to be in a recession over the next year, up from 9% in Q1.
- BOC Consumer Survey: Five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.39% from 3.02% in Q1.
Summary of the Surveys:
Business sentiment: Deteriorated after improving over the previous three quarters.
Sales outlook: Softened as higher fuel costs and Middle East uncertainty weighed on spending.
Exports: Outlook improved as trade uncertainty eased and commodity demand strengthened.
Capacity/Labor: Few firms reported capacity or labor constraints despite some input sourcing issues.
Investment/Employment: Investment plans remain firm, supported by oil, while hiring intentions weakened.
Prices: More firms expect higher input and selling prices due to elevated oil prices.
Inflation: Expectations rose on higher oil prices but eased after the mid-June U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
BOS indicators: Higher oil prices boosted price outlooks but weighed on business activity outside the Prairies.
