Going into the QSBO (data here) report BNZ were expected a cut at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on July 9, but it was not a strongly held biew:
- It is looking increasingly likely the RBNZ will stand pat when it delivers its July 9 Monetary Policy Review.
- Our formal view is for a 25 basis point cut but we recognise that the odds of this are diminishing by the day.
- Be that as it may, we think changing our call before seeing Tuesday’s NZIER Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion would be ill-advised.
BNZ have now changed their call, forecasting an on hold from the RBNZ. Market pricing is around 75% for a hold.
