Q3 and September month inflation data for Australia - it's the quarterly data that is of most focus
Australia Q3 CPI data:
- Trimmed mean CPI +1% q/q (expected +0.8%, prior +0.6%)
- CPI (all groups) +1.3% q/q (expected +1.1%, prior 0.7%)
- Weighted median CPI +1% q/q (expected +0.9%, prior 0.6%)
- Trimmed mean CPI +3% yr/yr (expected +2.7%, prior 2.8%)
- Q3 CPI (all groups) +3.2% yr/yr (expected +3.0%, prior 2.1%)
- Weighted median CPI +2.8% yr/yr (expected +2.7%, prior 2.7%)
Read the note below, this is critical data.
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The Reserve Bank of Australia next meet on November 3 and 4. The jobs data a couple of weeks agoi ramped up pricing for a 25bp rate cut at this meeting, hinging on a good result from this inflation data. This is not a good result. there will be no November rate cut. Nor in December I would strongly suggest.
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As I posted earlier ...
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke earlier this week, with a hawkish twist that came as a bit of a surprise to markets, Giuseppe had the mic drop moment:
Since her words markets have unwound expectations for a cash rate cut at the November 3-4 meeting somewhat:
- Bullock described the labour market as “a little tight”
- said the Bank did not want to “leap at a single number” (referring to the recent rise in the jobless rate in Australia)
- said a 0.9% q/q rise in trimmed mean inflation in the quarterly CPI data due today (see screenshot) would be a “material miss” against the RBA’s August forecast of 0.6% q/q
That 0.9% Bullock mentioned is vs. the consensus of a 0.8%, with a chunky minority expecting 0.7%. That's still ahead of the RBA's 0.6% forecast.
