Inflation data due from Australia on Wednesday, 26 April 2023:
- at 11.30 am Sydney time,
- which is 013.0 GMT and 2130 US Eastern time
I posted earlier previews here:
- Australian Q1 CPI due mid-week - preview: "Past the peak, but still too high"
- Preview of the Australian inflation data due mid-week. Expected implications for the RBA
This now via TD:
- We expect headline inflation to ease to 1.2% q/q (consensus is: 1.3%, RBA: 1.5%) from 1.9% last quarter. This would bring the annual print to 6.8% y/y, from 7.8% y/y in Q4.
- "The Jan-Feb monthly CPIs point to a quick easing in price pressures, and it is unlikely that the Q1 print would meet the RBA implied forecasts. To achieve the RBA's Q1'23 7.1% y/y forecast, this would require the monthly Mar'23 CPI to print ~1.35% m/m, significantly above the March outcomes in prior years.
- "For CPI trimmed mean inflation, we project it at 1.2% q/q, 6.5% y/y (cons: 1.4% q/q, 6.7% y/y) as broad-based price pressures remain. If both quarterly prints print in line with our forecasts, this should bolster our call for the RBA to keep rates unchanged again in May.
