Australian dollar jumped after very strong CPI data, November RBA rate cut off the table

The Australian Q3 2025 inflation data is here:

• Australian Q3 Core inflation (trimmed mean) +1.0% q/q (expected 0.8%, RBA forecast 0.6%)

The result takes a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut off the table. And December too.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock said this week athat a 0.9% trimmed mean was the line in the sand. At 1%, line crossed.

We gave plenty of heads up to this earlier in the week and in today's preview. ICYMI:

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke earlier this week, with a hawkish twist that came as a bit of a surprise to markets, Giuseppe had the mic drop moment:

• Bullock's comments lean on the hawkish side and it looks like they will need a downside surprise in the quarterly inflation report to have more conviction in a rate cut at the upcoming meeting.

Since her words markets have unwound expectations for a cash rate cut at the November 3-4 meeting somewhat:

• Bullock described the labour market as “a little tight”
• said the Bank did not want to “leap at a single number” (referring to the recent rise in the jobless rate in Australia)
• said a 0.9% q/q rise in trimmed mean inflation in the quarterly CPI data due today (see screenshot) would be a “material miss” against the RBA’s August forecast of 0.6% q/q

That 0.9% Bullock mentioned is vs. the consensus of a 0.8%, with a chunky minority expecting 0.7%. That's still ahead of the RBA's 0.6% forecast.

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AUD/USD is around 0.6603, higher on the session.