The Australian Q3 2025 inflation data is here:
The result takes a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut off the table. And December too.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock said this week athat a 0.9% trimmed mean was the line in the sand. At 1%, line crossed.
We gave plenty of heads up to this earlier in the week and in today's preview. ICYMI:
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock spoke earlier this week, with a hawkish twist that came as a bit of a surprise to markets, Giuseppe had the mic drop moment:
Since her words markets have unwound expectations for a cash rate cut at the November 3-4 meeting somewhat:
- Bullock described the labour market as “a little tight”
- said the Bank did not want to “leap at a single number” (referring to the recent rise in the jobless rate in Australia)
- said a 0.9% q/q rise in trimmed mean inflation in the quarterly CPI data due today (see screenshot) would be a “material miss” against the RBA’s August forecast of 0.6% q/q
That 0.9% Bullock mentioned is vs. the consensus of a 0.8%, with a chunky minority expecting 0.7%. That's still ahead of the RBA's 0.6% forecast.
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AUD/USD is around 0.6603, higher on the session.
