Australian CPI data was a shocking surprise, locked in rate hike. Next CPI due next week.

The latest official inflation data from Australia was published at the end of January.

On January 25 we got the quarterly CPI at 1.9% q/q and 7.8% y/y:

and the monthly CPI, even worse at +8%:

The quarterly CPI data point is more complete than the monthly data, but the monthly comes out more often (d'uh) and is used as a reasonable guide. It even gets front-page prominence on the Reserve Bank of Australia website:

rba cash rate inflation

The upcoming quarterly print is not due until April, but we do get the next monthly reading on Wednesday, March 1. So, a heads up for that. Its of note because the RBA has found itself playing catch-up on inflation. The twin inflation shocks of 7.8% and 8.4% back on January 25 locked in the rate hike we had from the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 7. The next RBA meeting is on March 7 and while I think we've had enough information from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe in his recent testimony to expect another rate hike, +25bp, in March the CPI data due next week will nevertheless be eyed.

I'll have more to come on the CPI on approach to Wednesday. The data is due at

  • 11.30am Sydney time
  • 0030 GMT
  • 7.30pm on Tuesday February 28 US Eastern time

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