AUD/USD marked down a few points on Australian CPI data coming in lower than expecte

If the Reserve Bank of Australia are inclined to pause at its next policy meeting, on April 4, the data today will support their case.

• Australian monthly CPI (February) 6.8% (vs. expected 7.1%)

If the Bank is inclined to hike, and maybe pause in May, the CPI still more than twice the upper end of the target band would also support their case:

• the target band is 2 to 3%

The minutes of the February meeting did indicate the Bank is leaning towards a pause though so scenario 1 of those above seems the best bet:

• RBA minutes: Board agreed to consider again the case for pausing rate hikes

This looks like a big drop for AUD/USD but its only 20 or so points:

1 minute candles shown