The data, as posted earlier but duplicating it here:
Headline CPI +2.1% q/q
• expected 1.7% q/q, prior 1.3%
For the y/y, +5.1%
• expected 4.6%, prior 3.5%
Core inflation :
Trimmed mean (this is the main measure the RBA will be looking at)
+1.4% q/q
• expected 1.2% q/q, prior 1.0%
+3.7% y/y
• expected 3.4% y/y, prior 2.6% (the RBA target band is 2 to 3%, "on average, over time" (quote from the RBA).)
Weighted median
1.0% q/q
• expected 1.1% q/q, prior 0.9%
3.2% y/y
• expected 3.3% y/y, prior was 2.7%
AUD/USD is now little changed from before the data. It did pop to 71.70 or so but has dipped back.
Q1 non-tradable prices +1.8% q/q and +4.2% y/y (this is the highest since June 2013). It is not a stretch to think that this will lead to domestic wage rises. That's what the RBA says its been waiting for.
The next Reserve Bank of Australia meeting is May 3 (that's next week, Tuesday). If these figures do not prompt a rate hike the Bank will just slip further behind the curve. yes the election is on May 21 and the Bank is lathe to hike during the campaign, but its time for cheek clenching and getting on with the job of doing what they can to fulfil their mandates.
