ANZ says NZ jobs data don’t stand in the way of RBNZ 50bp cut at meeting on 19 February

ANZ's main points:

• The Q4 labour market data were broadly as expected.
• The underlying details of the release highlight that the labour market is operating with a large degree of excess capacity, and measures of wage growth remain on a path to levels consistent with inflation near the RBNZ’s 2% target midpoint.
• Today’s data all but locks in a 50bps OCR cut at the RBNZ’s next meeting on 19 February. Thereafter, we continue to forecast a further 25bp cut in April, with the balance of the Q4 labour market and CPI inflation data, and the Q3 GDP data tilting the risks toward the OCR ultimately falling below our current forecast of a 3.5% trough.

---

Earlier posts on this:

• New Zealand Q4 unemployment rate 5.1% (vs. 5.1% expected and 4.8% in Q3
• More on the New Zealand jobs data - unemployment hitting a 4 year high