Further:
- We continue to expect that signs of softening domestic demand will see the RBNZ return to 25bp moves, just a little later than previously anticipated.
- We’re forecasting further 25bp hikes in October and November will bring the OCR to a peak of 3.5%.
- From there, we think the RBNZ will hold off on further hikes as inflation pressures wane – as long as there are no further upside inflation surprises. The picture can change quickly; ask the Fed.
Yesterday's Q1 GDP data sent a wiggle lower through the NZD/USD (see arrow below) but Q1 economic growth data is old, ancient, news and it soon rallied.
